10211 Ura Ln Unit 1-301

Thornton, CO 80260

$139,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 813 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$489
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,360/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (14.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in CO, #2,583 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 5% / reading 17%, grade F, #879 of 966 statewide, top 94%, 391 students, 82% FRL); Silver Hills Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #178 of 270 statewide, top 67%, 957 students, 70% FRL); Northglenn High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #257 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,959 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 33% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Adams 12 Five Star Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 135 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Thornton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?