4815 Plum Creek Rd

Taylorsville, KY 40071

$186,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1985 · Other · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$980
• Tax + insurance: −$276
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $434/mo
• Annual: $5,203/yr
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.22%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $52,332

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $187k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $187k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#149 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Spencer County (rural): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 165 in KY (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Spencer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spencer County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Taylorsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.