4815 Plum Creek Rd · Taylorsville, KY 40071

$186,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 1985 1.38 ac lot $167/sqft · 8% below area Est $202k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked into the rolling hills of Taylorsville, this charming reverse berm home offers a unique blend of cozy living and country character! Featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, this energy-efficient design keeps you comfortable year-round while surrounded by 1.38 acres of open space and natural beauty. Inside, you'll find an inviting layout that feels both warm and bright, perfect for quiet mornings or evenings spent with friends. Step outside to enjoy the peaceful setting—there's plenty of room to garden, explore, or simply unwind. If you've been searching for something a little different, full of personality and privacy, this Taylorsville gem is ready to welcome you home!

Key facts

• Room to garden
• 1.38 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT DESIGN
• 1.38 ACRES OF OPEN SPACE
• ROOM TO GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two-story home; Built in 1985; Entry level living area above grade
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: 1.38-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; One bedroom on the first floor; Two bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor; One half bathroom on the second floor
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Six closets; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $187k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.0% in Taylorsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#149 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Spencer County (rural): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 165 in KY (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Spencer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spencer County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,293 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.22%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,064
• List price: $186,900
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,659
• Equity at exit: $27,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $33,287
• Equity at exit: $16,160

Cash invested: $52,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40071

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$980
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,590

Max offer price $186,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,725
• Closing costs: $5,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $186,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $186,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $186,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $186,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $209,000 Active 686-char remark
16. 2026-05-10
    historical
17. 2026-01-24
    listed $209,000 Active
18. 2025-12-22
    status Active
19. 2025-12-10
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-10
    historical
21. 2025-10-28
    listed $209,000 Active
22. 2021-03-02
    soldstatus $175,000
23. 2020-08-04
    soldstatus $250,000
24. 2007-01-13
    historical
25. 2006-12-21
    soldstatus $65,000
26. 2006-07-13
    listed $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,469
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$1,601
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$5,437
• Taxable income: $2,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$562
• After-tax cash flow: $4,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spencer County
• NCES district ID: 2105490
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $64,167
• Composite: 38.74/100
• National rank: #4125
• State rank: #18 of 165 in KY

Livability — Taylorsville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #7189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,702

Population outlook (Spencer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,077 people
• By 2030: 21,008 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 22,560 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 23,480 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 25,222 · +25.6%
• By 2100: 25,550 · +27.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spencer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -35.5pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+55.5 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+35.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.62%
• Current HPI: 274.9283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+167.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $186,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $209,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $209,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $209,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-13 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2006-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-13 Listed $70,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,710 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.