131 Lipan Trl

Horseshoe Bend, TX 76087

$189,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 579 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,684/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$707
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-367/mo
• Annual: $-4,410/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-367 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (34.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,388 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Weatherford ISD (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #321 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wright El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 575 students, 56% FRL); Hall Middle (math 43% / reading 45%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 973 students, 47% FRL); Weatherford H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,525 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 663 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.