5282 Naranja St #11

San Diego, CA 92114

$539,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,957
• Tax + insurance: −$1,258
• HOA: −$197
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $-2,880/mo
• Annual: $-34,558/yr
• Cap rate: 1.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.36%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $211,295

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $539k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (37.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (40.5% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• San Diego Unified (urban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #393 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valencia Park Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 409 students, 91% FRL); Millennial Tech Middle (365 students, 87% FRL); Lincoln High (1,407 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 52% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?