8108 Burnt Orchid Dr

Houston, TX 77016

$170,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 232 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$597
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,992/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (17.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall El (math 11% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,127 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 610 students, 98% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 7627% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — Some areas of the lawn appear slightly overgrown.
• Minor: Driveway — Some cracks in the concrete surface.