12406 Hibiscus Oak Pl

Lake Magdalene, FL 33612

$120,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 899 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,341/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $230/mo
• Annual: $2,765/yr
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#361 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miles Elementary School (math 23% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,091 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 675 students, 76% FRL); Buchanan Middle School (math 35% / reading 32%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 759 students, 73% FRL); Gaither High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,123 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: paint — Paint appears slightly worn