12406 Hibiscus Oak Pl · Lake Magdalene, FL 33612

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 899 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

Built 1999 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Upstairs unit upgraded amenities gated community pool clubhouse gym and park. .. it& apos; s two bedrooms

Key facts

• Upgraded amenities
• Gated community
• Clubhouse

Tags

• UPGRADED AMENITIES
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• GYM
• PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#361 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: schools D, commute D, amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,340
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,191
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33612

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $272	+0% $230	+5% $189	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $177	+0% $230	+5% $283	+10% $336
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $261	base $230	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12406 Hibiscus Oak Pl #102 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	899	$1,750	$1.95	25d	1	0.02mi
102 Curiosity Creek Ln Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$1,245	$2.88	0d	6	0.16mi
102 E 122nd Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,145	$1.64	6d	3	0.29mi
302 E 121st Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	2d	1	0.29mi
801 E 120th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	25d	1	0.45mi
801 E 120th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	21d	1	0.45mi
11733 N 12th St Apt L Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	25d	1	0.71mi
812 E 114th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,400	$1.72	25d	1	0.71mi
11733 N 12th St Apt E Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	21d	1	0.73mi
13402 Coastal Key Rd Tampa, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1109	$1,383	$1.25	0d	9	0.75mi
1323 Baywatch Loop Unit 18-1323/102 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	625	$1,200	$1.92	25d	1	0.77mi
11738 N 14th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,250	$1.92	25d	1	0.78mi
1426 Marathon Key Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	773	$1,165	$1.51	25d	12	0.82mi
13944 Sandy Hill Loop Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,150	$1.52	0d	4	0.82mi
12406 N 15th St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,039	$1.43	2d	9	0.84mi
12202 N 15th St Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	25d	1	0.85mi
11734 N 15th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,650	$2.36	25d	1	0.89mi
1414 Maluhia Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,850	$2.75	25d	1	0.90mi
1550 University Woods Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,350	$1.21	2d	9	0.92mi
13617 Fletcher Regency Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,240	$1.71	25d	6	0.93mi
13218 Bunn Cir Unit G14 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	0.95mi
1302 Cooperstown Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,174	$1.37	0d	9	0.96mi
13214 Bunn Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$1,250	$1.65	25d	1	0.98mi
13215 Bunn Cir Unit G29 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,400	$2.28	25d	1	0.98mi
13238 Bunn Cir Unit G47 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,400	$2.28	25d	1	0.98mi
13234 Bunn Cir Unit G55 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	25d	1	0.99mi
13221 Bunn Cir Unit G78 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	615	$1,400	$2.28	25d	1	1.00mi
13036 Kain Palms Ct Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,299	$1.44	2d	6	1.00mi
12736 N 17th St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	744	$1,159	$1.56	25d	1	1.01mi
12740 N 17th St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	542	$1,124	$2.07	6d	1	1.02mi
12746 N 17th St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	706	$999	$1.42	4d	1	1.03mi
1701 E 131st Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	647	$1,049	$1.62	4d	13	1.04mi
11312 N 15th St Unit 01 1406-04 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	25d	1	1.04mi
11312 N 15th St Unit 01 1404-11 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,299	$1.18	16d	1	1.04mi
11312 N 15th St Unit 01 1405-20 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	6d	1	1.04mi
1701 Woodfern Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,319	$1.65	25d	1	1.04mi
12745 N 17th St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	542	$1,124	$2.07	25d	1	1.05mi
1703 Woodfern Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,199	$1.50	23d	1	1.06mi
11312 N 15th St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	4d	1	1.06mi
13725 Susan Kay Dr Unit DRIVE41-B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,375	$1.67	25d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home has average interior paint and carpeted flooring, with minor paint wear. A fresh coat of paint and replacing the carpet with hardwood or tile would significantly enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, boosting both resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — Paint appears slightly worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and attractive, increasing both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · Paint appears slightly worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and attractive, increasing both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Magdalene

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #6328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Magdalene, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 27,588
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,005
• Household income: $47,199
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4314.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% Black 30% White 25% Two or more races 24% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 8% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 33% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -311.62%
• Current HPI: 405.9834
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com