7414 Dunkirk Ln

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$210,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $83/mo
• Annual: $997/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 17 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.