7414 Dunkirk Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$210,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1955 0.25 ac lot Est $211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee; No monthly maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Located in the Valley Village subdivision
• Construction: Built in 1955; Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Level lot; Full chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; 1 HVAC unit for heating and 1 for cooling
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; 5 closets; No basement; Eat-in kitchen; Family room
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,818 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7307 Nathan Hale Way	0.11mi	4/1.0	1,204 (0%)	1mo	$215,000	$179	94
13609 Tennis Blvd	0.04mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (+2%)	4mo	$195,000	$159	86
7408 Wimstock Ave	0.24mi	4/1.0	1,230 (+2%)	2mo	$219,500	$178	84
13507 Tennis Blvd	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-6%)	1mo	$190,000	$168	80
7114 Nathan Hale Way	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-2%)	3mo	$169,900	$144	77
13422 Hopedale Way	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-2%)	2mo	$155,000	$132	75
7319 Betsy Ross Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (-14%)	2mo	$188,900	$181	67
14017 Beeston Blvd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (+2%)	4mo	$170,000	$138	61
13405 Lidcomb Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (-14%)	2mo	$182,000	$175	56
7101 Betsy Ross Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,035 (-14%)	0mo	$208,000	$201	55
14910 Galston Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (+5%)	2mo	$196,000	$154	49
13413 Kinross Blvd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,068 (-11%)	3mo	$197,000	$184	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-30,439
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-26,546
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,595/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,673

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6902 Betsy Ross Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	14d	1	0.55mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	1d	1	0.60mi
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	1d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $210,000 Active
4. 2025-05-29
   soldstatus $180,000
5. 2025-05-27
   soldstatus $180,000 Closed 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

6. 2025-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

7. 2025-04-30
   price $190,000 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

8. 2025-04-19
   status Active 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

9. 2025-04-10
   historical Active Under Contract 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

10. 2025-04-09
    status Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

11. 2025-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

12. 2025-03-11
    price $195,000 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

13. 2025-02-04
    listed $199,000 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This Valley Village Home features split floor plan, 4 Bedrooms, fenced yard, detached 2 car garage, covered porch/ patio area and more. New roof installed 02-02-25. HVAC has been serviced as well. This is minutes from Gene Snyder Freeway and close to schools, shopping, etc. Home will be sold ''as is'' unless a safety issue. More pictures to come.

14. 2021-03-19
    soldstatus $91,100 Closed 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    This property features four bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a detached two car garage. Schedule your showing today! Sold as-is. Insured status: IN (Insured). Choose FHA financing to qualify for $100 down. Ask Agent for details. $100 down & 203K eligible. Equal housing opportunity.

15. 2021-01-14
    status Pending 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    This property features four bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a detached two car garage. Schedule your showing today! Sold as-is. Insured status: IN (Insured). Choose FHA financing to qualify for $100 down. Ask Agent for details. $100 down & 203K eligible. Equal housing opportunity.

16. 2021-01-13
    status Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    This property features four bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a detached two car garage. Schedule your showing today! Sold as-is. Insured status: IN (Insured). Choose FHA financing to qualify for $100 down. Ask Agent for details. $100 down & 203K eligible. Equal housing opportunity.

17. 2020-12-21
    status Pending 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    This property features four bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a detached two car garage. Schedule your showing today! Sold as-is. Insured status: IN (Insured). Choose FHA financing to qualify for $100 down. Ask Agent for details. $100 down & 203K eligible. Equal housing opportunity.

18. 2020-12-09
    listed $100,000 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    This property features four bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a detached two car garage. Schedule your showing today! Sold as-is. Insured status: IN (Insured). Choose FHA financing to qualify for $100 down. Ask Agent for details. $100 down & 203K eligible. Equal housing opportunity.

19. 2018-03-21
    soldstatus $112,455
20. 2018-03-16
    soldstatus $112,455 Closed
21. 2018-01-15
    status Pending
22. 2018-01-05
    price $104,999
23. 2018-01-04
    listed $110,000 Active
24. 2012-08-09
    soldstatus $75,000
25. 2012-08-06
    soldstatus $75,000
26. 2012-05-23
    historical
27. 2012-05-23
    listed $82,500
28. 2012-05-03
    listed $84,900
29. 2011-12-30
    soldstatus $25,600
30. 2011-11-02
    historical
31. 2011-07-27
    listed $34,900
32. 2011-07-27
    listed $29,900
33. 2006-09-29
    historical
34. 2006-09-14
    historical
35. 2006-08-16
    listed $84,900
36. 2006-08-16
    listed $74,900
37. 2005-12-08
    historical
38. 2005-09-16
    listed $82,500
39. 2004-11-20
    soldstatus $82,400
40. 2004-09-24
    listed $83,900
41. 2004-08-08
    historical
42. 2004-06-17
    listed $74,900
43. 2002-03-22
    soldstatus $57,000
44. 2002-01-07
    listed $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,806 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,595
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$2,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $1,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+218.7% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-27 Sold (MLS) $180,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-05 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $190,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-19 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-10 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-09 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-02 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $195,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-02-04 Listed $199,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) $91,100 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-01-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-01-13 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-12-21 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-12-09 Listed $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $112,455 Public Records
• 2018-03-16 Sold (MLS) $112,455 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-01-15 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-01-05 Price Changed $104,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-01-04 Listed $110,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-06 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-05-23 Listed $82,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-05-23 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2012-05-03 Listed $84,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-12-30 Sold (MLS) $25,600 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-11-02 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2011-07-27 Listed $29,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-07-27 Listed $34,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-09-29 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2006-09-14 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2006-08-16 Listed $74,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-08-16 Listed $84,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-12-08 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2005-09-16 Listed $82,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-11-20 Sold (MLS) $82,400 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-09-24 Listed $83,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-08-08 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2004-06-17 Listed $74,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2002-03-22 Sold (MLS) $57,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2002-01-07 Listed $65,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,595 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.