251 N First St

Northville, NY 12134

$189,900A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,183 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $635/mo
• Annual: $7,616/yr
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.32%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.