251 N First St · Northville, NY 12134

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,183 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1920 7,840 sqft lot $161/sqft · 19% below area Est $234k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this cute 2 bedroom year round house with a back yard for entertaining or enjoy sitting on the front porch. The house has a new propane furnace in 2023 and has plenty of cupboards and countertops in the kitchen. It is conveniently located in the quaint village of Northville and is within walking distance to the grocery store, drug store, restaurants school, post office and Great acandaga Lake. It is a short drive to Saratoga, Gore Mountain and Lapland Lake cross country ski area. Garage will fit 2 cars tandem style. Dishwasher is exempt from inspections. Freezer,washer, dryer and refrigerator are are excluded from sale. Electric heat is is mudroom and laundry room.

Key facts

• New propane furnace
• Plenty of cupboards
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• BACK YARD FOR ENTERTAINING
• NEW PROPANE FURNACE
• PLENTY OF CUPBOARDS
• PLENTY OF COUNTERTOPS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DRUG STORE
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $635 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.32%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,360
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -18.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 N 1st St	0.13mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,204 (+2%)	14mo	$189,000	$157	72
212 S Third St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,224 (+4%)	9mo	$165,000	$135	71
511 Reed St	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-3%)	18mo	$215,000	$187	65
301 N Main St	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,025 (-13%)	12mo	$225,000	$220	64
362 S 2nd St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-1%)	20mo	$222,000	$189	54
322 S 2nd St	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,308 (+11%)	9mo	$295,000	$226	48
356 S Third St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,022 (-14%)	21mo	$317,000	$310	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $143,878
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.37×
• Total profit: $391,968
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,710/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $635

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $688	+0% $635	+5% $581	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $441	-5% $538	+0% $635	+5% $731	+10% $828
Rate	-1.0pp $730	-0.5pp $683	base $635	+0.5pp $585	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
521 Reed St Unit B Northville, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,450	$2.04	45d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2025-10-30
   listed $189,900 Active 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Come see this cute 2 bedroom year round house with a back yard for entertaining or enjoy sitting on the front porch. The house has a new propane furnace in 2023 and has plenty of cupboards and countertops in the kitchen. It is conveniently located in the quaint village of Northville and is within walking distance to the grocery store, drug store, restaurants school, post office and Great acandaga Lake. It is a short drive to Saratoga, Gore Mountain and Lapland Lake cross country ski area. Garage will fit 2 cars tandem style. Dishwasher is exempt from inspections. Freezer,washer, dryer and refrigerator are are excluded from sale. Electric heat is is mudroom and laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,710 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,960 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,710
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $4,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,170
• After-tax cash flow: $6,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Listed $189,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,710 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.