4 Alan Rd

Danbury, CT 06810

$599,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,504 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$813
• HOA: −$365
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,040
• Net cashflow: $-410/mo
• Annual: $-4,923/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $167,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $527k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $495k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($582k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $495k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,379 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Danbury School District (urban): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #131 of 153 in CT (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Danbury High School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #137 of 194 statewide, top 70%, 3,590 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,954/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 3255% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.