3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,256 sqft ·
Built 2019
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,714/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$166
HOA
−$55
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$360
Net cashflow
$347/mo
Annual
$4,160/yr
Cap rate
9.07%
Cash-on-cash
9.91%
DSCR
1.44
1% rule
1.14%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#235 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Coolidge Unified District (4442) (town): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #229 of 249 in AZ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Heartland Ranch Elementary School (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 525 students, 84% FRL); Coolidge High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 640 students, 68% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 271 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.5% in Coolidge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K1T2744V9V258E
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29