11786 Macrinus Dr

Black Jack, MO 63033

$164,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,660/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $158/mo
• Annual: $1,895/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.13%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $45,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.