11786 Macrinus Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$164,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1968 7,801 sqft lot $150/sqft · 15% below area Est $193k · 15% under $43/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is located in the Seven Hills Plat 4 neighborhood and offers a traditional layout designed for comfortable living. The inviting interior features a cozy fireplace as the centerpiece of the living area, complemented by easy-to-maintain full tile flooring throughout the residence. The heart of the home is a functional kitchen equipped with a dining area, laminate countertops, and black appliances. This space is perfectly suited for everyday meals and connects smoothly to the rest of the home’s classic floor plan. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage and a dedicated primary bathroom. Additional features include an unfinished basement that provides versatile living space and an attached 2-car garage. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, offering a secure area for outdoor activities. Ideally situated in an area with a convenient commute to the east, this home is just minutes away from main roads.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Black appliances
• Dining area

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• FULL TILE FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• BLACK APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.13%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,019
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: -15.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11879 Galba Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,092 (0%)	0mo	$159,900	$146	91
4377 Varano Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+6%)	2mo	$150,000	$130	78
4493 Caracalla Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+6%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	75
4950 Patricia Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,124 (+3%)	4mo	$177,500	$158	74
11882 Nero Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,080 (-1%)	3mo	$209,900	$194	73
4384 Remus Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+3%)	2mo	$209,900	$186	73
4401 Rhine Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	7mo	$169,900	$157	72
11975 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+6%)	10mo	$120,000	$104	70
12415 Danube Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,124 (+3%)	6mo	$150,000	$133	67
4364 Satiris Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	8mo	$148,900	$138	66
11648 Galba Dr	0.12mi	3/1.5	936 (-14%)	4mo	$169,000	$181	65
4895 Lockwig Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,092 (0%)	10mo	$124,900	$114	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $107,285
• Equity at exit: $147,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $327,238
• Equity at exit: $318,616

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,182/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $204	+0% $158	+5% $111	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $92	+0% $158	+5% $223	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $200	base $158	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	0.27mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	18d	1	0.31mi
11470 Latonka Trl Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	843	$1,050	$1.25	45d	3	0.45mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,180	$0.96	0d	18	0.50mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	45d	1	0.82mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	0d	1	1.10mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	25d	1	1.23mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	25d	1	1.38mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	9d	1	1.41mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	0d	1	1.41mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	25d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $164,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $171,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $171,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $171,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $171,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $171,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $171,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $171,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $171,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $171,000 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is located in the Seven Hills Plat 4 neighborhood and offers a traditional layout designed for comfortable living. The inviting interior features a cozy fireplace as the centerpiece of the living area, complemented by easy-to-maintain full tile flooring throughout the residence. The heart of the home is a functional kitchen equipped with a dining area, laminate countertops, and black appliances. This space is perfectly suited for everyday meals and connects smoothly to the rest of the home’s classic floor plan. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage and a dedicated primary bathroom. Additional features include an unfinished basement that provides versatile living space and an attached 2-car garage. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, offering a secure area for outdoor activities. Ideally situated in an area with a convenient commute to the east, this home is just minutes away from main roads.

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $176,000 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is located in the Seven Hills Plat 4 neighborhood and offers a traditional layout designed for comfortable living. The inviting interior features a cozy fireplace as the centerpiece of the living area, complemented by easy-to-maintain full tile flooring throughout the residence. The heart of the home is a functional kitchen equipped with a dining area, laminate countertops, and black appliances. This space is perfectly suited for everyday meals and connects smoothly to the rest of the home’s classic floor plan. The primary bedroom serves as a private retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet for ample storage and a dedicated primary bathroom. Additional features include an unfinished basement that provides versatile living space and an attached 2-car garage. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, offering a secure area for outdoor activities. Ideally situated in an area with a convenient commute to the east, this home is just minutes away from main roads.

19. 2025-03-01
    historical $1,450
20. 2025-02-27
    historical $1,450
21. 2025-02-14
    price $1,450
22. 2025-02-13
    price $1,450
23. 2025-02-07
    price $1,490
24. 2025-02-07
    price $1,490
25. 2025-02-01
    price $1,535
26. 2025-01-31
    price $1,535
27. 2025-01-31
    listed $1,600
28. 2025-01-31
    listed $1,600
29. 2015-09-01
    soldstatus $15,382,732
30. 2013-10-04
    soldstatus 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Beautiful ranch is now available in Hazelwood. Home features wood floors, modern kitchen and a nice rear yard. Close location to parks, schools and amenities. Prior to seller receipt and approval of the full title package from foreclosure, title to the Property will be conveyed by a quit claim deed. The property was built prior to 1978 and lead-based paint potentially exists.

31. 2013-05-09
    listed $48,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Beautiful ranch is now available in Hazelwood. Home features wood floors, modern kitchen and a nice rear yard. Close location to parks, schools and amenities. Prior to seller receipt and approval of the full title package from foreclosure, title to the Property will be conveyed by a quit claim deed. The property was built prior to 1978 and lead-based paint potentially exists.

32. 1986-01-01
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$2,182
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$747
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$179
• After-tax cash flow: $2,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+180.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $171,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $176,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-01 Rental Removed $1,450 RENTLY
• 2025-02-27 Rental Removed $1,450 RENT.
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $1,450 RENTLY
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $1,450 RENT.
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $1,490 RENT.
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $1,490 RENTLY
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $1,535 RENTLY
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $1,535 RENT.
• 2025-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,600 RENT.
• 2025-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,600 RENTLY
• 2015-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,382,732 Public Records
• 2013-10-04 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-09 Listed $48,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,182 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.