3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,144 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Condo
· Pending
· 163 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,440/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,626
Tax + insurance
−$583
HOA
−$1,774
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$722
Net cashflow
$-1,265/mo
Annual
$-15,181/yr
Cap rate
1.65%
Cash-on-cash
-16.57%
DSCR
0.26
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$86,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $310k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $310k).
It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 52% of rent.
Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $180k; list at $310k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K27A815QBVTFS4
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29