31288 Pine Oak Rd

Menifee, CA 92596

$649,990D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,763 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,083
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-1,201/mo
• Annual: $-14,418/yr
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.92%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $181,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $476k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (35.9% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $417k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.