31288 Pine Oak Rd · Menifee, CA 92596

$649,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,763 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 5,565 sqft lot Est $763k · 15% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Hudson community- Check out KBhome's newest Community in Winchester, CA!  Offering amazing affordable pricing, as well as all electric, solar-powered homes to help maximize home energy efficiency and comfort.  This brand-new energy star home is 2,763 square feet, 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms.   The spacious great room overlooks a modern kitchen with included Stainless Steel appliances, Quartz counter tops, and white shaker style cabinets. Primary bedroom and both secondary bedrooms have spacious closets. This home comes with a 10 year limited warranty backed by one of the nations largest home builders.  This community will include a proposed city-maintained valley wide park within the community that will feature amenities such as a basketball court, softball field, soccer fields and playground.   Photo is rendering of the model. Can purchase or lease the solar

Key facts

• Energy star home
• Modern kitchen
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• SOLAR POWERED HOMES
• ENERGY STAR HOME
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• WHITE SHAKER STYLE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $476k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities D.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $416,510 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.92%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $762,588
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31264 Pine Oak Rd	0.02mi	4/3.5	2,763 (0%)	1mo	$657,990	$238	98
31372 Pine Oak Rd	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,453 (-11%)	1mo	$677,095	$276	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $265,334
• Equity at exit: $585,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $819,813
• Equity at exit: $1,262,788

Cash invested: $181,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,750/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$875
• Net cashflow: $-1,201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,686

Max offer price $476,131

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,498
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32257 Jeter Ln Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2497	$4,200	$1.68	4d	1	0.99mi
30449 Pipkin Ct Menifee, CA	4.0	3.5	2653	$3,800	$1.43	12d	1	1.22mi
30474 Gardner Ln Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	2289	$3,295	$1.44	17d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,990 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,990 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,990 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,990 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $649,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $659,990 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $659,990 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $659,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $659,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $659,990 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Beautiful Hudson community- Check out KBhome's newest Community in Winchester, CA!  Offering amazing affordable pricing, as well as all electric, solar-powered homes to help maximize home energy efficiency and comfort.  This brand-new energy star home is 2,763 square feet, 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms.   The spacious great room overlooks a modern kitchen with included Stainless Steel appliances, Quartz counter tops, and white shaker style cabinets. Primary bedroom and both secondary bedrooms have spacious closets. This home comes with a 10 year limited warranty backed by one of the nations largest home builders.  This community will include a proposed city-maintained valley wide park within the community that will feature amenities such as a basketball court, softball field, soccer fields and playground.   Photo is rendering of the model. Can purchase or lease the solar

15. 2026-05-19
    listed $659,990 Active 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    Beautiful Hudson community- Check out KBhome's newest Community in Winchester, CA!  Offering amazing affordable pricing, as well as all electric, solar-powered homes to help maximize home energy efficiency and comfort.  This brand-new energy star home is 2,763 square feet, 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms.   The spacious great room overlooks a modern kitchen with included Stainless Steel appliances, Quartz counter tops, and white shaker style cabinets. Primary bedroom and both secondary bedrooms have spacious closets. This home comes with a 10 year limited warranty backed by one of the nations largest home builders.  This community will include a proposed city-maintained valley wide park within the community that will feature amenities such as a basketball court, softball field, soccer fields and playground.   Photo is rendering of the model. Can purchase or lease the solar

16. 2026-05-18
    price $659,990
17. 2026-05-09
    price $663,990
18. 2026-05-02
    price $655,990
19. 2026-03-01
    listed $708,963 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$9,750
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,999
• − Management: −$3,999
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$26,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $659,990 CRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $659,990 CRMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $663,990 CRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $655,990 CRMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $708,963 CRMLS