42 Morris Ave

Holtsville, NY 11738

$749,999D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,319 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$887
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,027
• Net cashflow: $-957/mo
• Annual: $-11,480/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $210,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $581k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $489k (34.8% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $489k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#414 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Chippewa Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 515 students, 25% FRL); Sagamore Middle School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 933 students, 30% FRL); Sachem High School East (math 94% / reading 93%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 2,082 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Holtsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.