42 Morris Ave · Holtsville, NY 11738

$749,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1983 0.34 ac lot $226/sqft · 16% below area Est $891k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Home that has it all! Welcome to 42 Morris Avenue in Farmingville - Large Expanded Colonial offering 4 Bedroom 3.5 Baths - 1st Floor: Foyer, Large Updated Eat In Kitchen with S/S Appliances, Dining Room, Den with woodburning Fireplace, electric. - 2nd Floor: 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths. Side Home what was once the Garage Offering, Full Bath, Living Room, Eating Area. Full Basement, Unfinished (NO, OSE) - Beautifully Maintained Yard with a 20X40 Salt Water In Ground Pool, In Ground Sprinklers - New Hardwood Floors, Updated Bathrooms - Washer/Dryer in the Landing Area upstairs. Sachem School District: Chippewa, Sagamore & Sachem East High School. True Taxes: 12,498.17

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Pool
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Vinyl siding; Not on waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full attic with pull-down stairs; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $750k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-957 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $581k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $489k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $489k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Holtsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#414 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Chippewa Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 515 students, 25% FRL); Sagamore Middle School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #259 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 933 students, 30% FRL); Sachem High School East (math 94% / reading 93%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 2,082 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $489,003 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $891,009
• List price: $749,999
• Delta: -15.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Mary Lu Dr	0.56mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,113 (-6%)	2mo	$837,000	$269	57
18 Concord Dr	0.27mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,850 (-14%)	4mo	$850,000	$298	53
8 Berwyn Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	3,100 (-7%)	18mo	$760,000	$245	52
18 Borman Ct	0.49mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,359 (+1%)	19mo	$920,000	$274	48
30 Linden Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,828 (-15%)	4mo	$675,000	$239	39
26 Liber Blvd	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,858 (-14%)	4mo	$698,000	$244	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-182,611
• Equity at exit: $111,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-238,077
• Equity at exit: $64,846

Cash invested: $210,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11738

• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,890/yr
• Insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,027
• Net cashflow: $-957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,101

Max offer price $581,004

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-532	-5% $-744	+0% $-957	+5% $-1,169	+10% $-1,381
Rent	-10% $-1,343	-5% $-1,150	+0% $-957	+5% $-763	+10% $-570
Rate	-1.0pp $-579	-0.5pp $-766	base $-957	+0.5pp $-1,151	+1.0pp $-1,349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $187,500
• Closing costs: $22,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Maple Ln Farmingville, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$5,788	$3.10	0d	14	1.03mi
39 Elder Ave Unit 1st level Farmingville, NY	3.0	1.5	2492	$4,000	$1.61	0d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $749,999 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $749,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $749,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $749,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $749,999 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $749,999 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $749,999 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $749,999 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $749,999 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-04
    listed $749,999 Active 688-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,890 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,783 · $815/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,892/yr (+$241/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,012
• − Property taxes: −$6,890
• − Insurance: −$3,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,694
• − Management: −$4,694
• − Depreciation: −$21,818
• Taxable loss: −$25,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,043
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holtsville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #7194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holtsville, NY
• City population: 13,194
• Population (ZIP): 20,246

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -605.51%
• Current HPI: 364.6287
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $749,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,890 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.