104 Evelyn St

Flomaton, AL 36441

$130,000B-

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,241/yr
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.9% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#446 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $130k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.