204 N Main St

Petal, MS 39465

$142,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$747
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $413/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $39,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($413/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#18 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Petal School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #2 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Petal Elementary (math 71% / reading 62%, grade B+, #14 of 375 statewide, top 3%, 634 students, 100% FRL); Petal Middle School (math 72% / reading 55%, grade B+, #3 of 179 statewide, top 2%, 745 students, 100% FRL); Petal High School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade D+, #17 of 197 statewide, top 9%, 1,288 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 49% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $142k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Petal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.