3452 Baldwin Rd

Wellsville, NY 14895

$44,900A-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · Built 1876 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $781/mo
• Annual: $9,371/yr
• Cap rate: 27.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.54%
• DSCR: 4.32
• 1% rule: 3.08%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1876 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 6.6% in Wellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1876 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.