3452 Baldwin Rd · Wellsville, NY 14895

$44,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1876 6.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property includes a house and a stocked trout stream on 6.4 acres located in Wellsville NY, Allegany County. Just outside the Village of Wellsville sits this unique 6-acre property with frontage on Dyke Creek. The level lot offers a mix of open lawn, meadow, and scattered evergreens providing both space and privacy while being less than two miles from Main Street. An older two-story home is situated along the paved road. Vacant for several years, the residence offers solid bones, natural gas availability, attached garage, and a newer shingle roof installed in 2004 making it an excellent candidate for renovation or a new vision. The property is highlighted by its rare size and access to

Key facts

• Access to dyke creek
• Mix of open lawn
• Attached garage

Tags

• FRONTAGE ON DYKE CREEK
• MIX OF OPEN LAWN
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• NEWER SHINGLE ROOF
• ACCESS TO DYKE CREEK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; High-speed internet available; No public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home; Frame construction with wood siding; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Has a view
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Two stories
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Partially wooded grounds; Stream/creek on the property; River access to Dyke Creek; Level topography; Irregular, rural wooded lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Interior features: Carpet and varied flooring; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 6.6% in Wellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1876 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1876 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.54%
• DSCR: 4.32
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,796
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Trapping Brook Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,702 (-4%)	7mo	$129,000	$76	63
80 Sunnydale Ave	0.10mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,010 (+13%)	9mo	$188,000	$94	59
2854 Truax Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,772 (-0%)	22mo	$165,000	$93	56
283 E Dyke St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,874 (+5%)	13mo	$132,000	$70	45
3271 First Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-10%)	18mo	$130,000	$82	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $74,212
• Equity at exit: $40,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.5%
• Equity multiple: 15.28×
• Total profit: $179,471
• Equity at exit: $87,231

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $781

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $812	-5% $796	+0% $781	+5% $765	+10% $750
Rent	-10% $672	-5% $726	+0% $781	+5% $835	+10% $890
Rate	-1.0pp $804	-0.5pp $792	base $781	+0.5pp $769	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $44,900 Active
3. 2026-04-30
   historical
4. 2026-03-24
   status Active
5. 2025-10-10
   status Pending
6. 2025-08-21
   listed $44,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,326
• − Management: −$1,326
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $9,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,209
• After-tax cash flow: $7,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $44,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-10-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $44,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,308 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.