312 Pickett Cir

Liberty, NC 27298

$155,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 775 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $339/mo
• Annual: $4,065/yr
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.37%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#56 in NC, #4,472 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Randolph County School System (rural): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #94 of 178 in NC (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 415 students, 77% FRL); Northeastern Randolph Middle School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 481 students, 61% FRL); Providence Grove High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 653 students, 51% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 789 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randolph County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.2% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.