312 Pickett Cir · Liberty, NC 27298

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1950 10,454 sqft lot Est $153k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent investment or handyman opportunity in a convenient, established neighborhood. This property offers potential for rental income or long term value appreciation, making it an ideal addition to any portfolio or for owner occupants to personalize for themselves. Added value includes a refrigerator, washer, and dryer that will remain with an acceptable offer. Located within minutes of employers, shopping, and highways. Home is being sold As Is.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport and driveway; 1 garage/carport space
• Security: Dead bolt(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One story; Built in 1950; Existing structure
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Garden; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating fuel
• Interior features: Dead bolt(s); Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.2% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#56 in NC, #4,472 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Randolph County School System (rural): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #94 of 178 in NC (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 415 students, 77% FRL); Northeastern Randolph Middle School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 481 students, 61% FRL); Providence Grove High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 653 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 789 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.37%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,450
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Pickett Cir	0.05mi	2/1.0	835 (+8%)	7mo	$165,000	$198	79
437 Smith St	0.22mi	2/1.0	794 (+2%)	18mo	$80,000	$101	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,583
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $24,496
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27298

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $383	+0% $339	+5% $295	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $274	+0% $339	+5% $404	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $378	base $339	+0.5pp $299	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 E Dameron Ave Liberty, NC	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	13d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $165,000
18. 2026-04-26
    price $180,000
19. 2026-02-12
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $1,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$388
• After-tax cash flow: $3,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph County School System
• NCES district ID: 3703780
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,490
• Composite: 36.37/100
• National rank: #4686
• State rank: #94 of 178 in NC

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #4472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,507

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,640 people
• By 2030: 140,911 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 135,692 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 128,575 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 111,507 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 93,376 · -34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.3pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+56.7 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+42.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.90%
• Current HPI: 257.7834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $165,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $180,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $185,000 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,048 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.