106 Oriole Ln

Bull Shoals, AR 72619

$149,500D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,029 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,361/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (34.5% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#92 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Flippin School District (rural): math 34% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 238 in AR (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Flippin Elementary School (math 37% / reading 17%, grade F, #333 of 454 statewide, top 75%, 405 students, 100% FRL); Flippin Middle School (math 39% / reading 33%, grade F, #117 of 201 statewide, top 58%, 243 students, 100% FRL); Flippin High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #142 of 292 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 60% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 237 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $150k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Bull Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.