106 Oriole Ln · Bull Shoals, AR 72619

$149,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,029 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

$145/sqft · 9% above area Est $200k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful Ozark hill views and easy lake living in this beautifully updated 2-bedroom condo just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake and the marina. This spacious condo lives like a one-story home with all necessities on the main level. Experience the fully remodeled kitchen with all new appliances, soft brand-new carpet, and beautifully remodeled bathrooms with thousands invested in upgrades. The home also features a (boat-sized) garage plus a downstairs den with additional outside entry, perfect for a hobby room, guest space, or home office. Located in the charming lake town of Bull Shoals near boating, fishing, and everyday conveniences. Capitalize on this move-in-ready condo in a 45+ community (with board-approved exceptions possible) and start living your best lake life today!

Key facts

• Boat sized garage
• Downstairs den
• New appliances

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• BOAT SIZED GARAGE
• DOWNSTAIRS DEN
• OUTSIDE ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Bull Shoals — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#92 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Flippin School District (rural): math 34% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 238 in AR (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 237 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $150k implies a 248% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $97,900 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,623
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -25.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Mcdonald Meadows Pkwy	0.60mi	2/1.0	946 (-8%)	11mo	$117,000	$124	47
105 Alford Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	936 (-9%)	18mo	$75,000	$80	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-31,524
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-37,058
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72619

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $487/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,123

Max offer price $129,464

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-71	+0% $-113	+5% $-156	+10% $-198
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-152	+0% $-113	+5% $-75	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-75	base $-113	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,500 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,500 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,500 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,500 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    price $149,500 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful Ozark hill views and easy lake living in this beautifully updated 2-bedroom condo just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake and the marina. This spacious condo lives like a one-story home with all necessities on the main level. Experience the fully remodeled kitchen with all new appliances, soft brand-new carpet, and beautifully remodeled bathrooms with thousands invested in upgrades. The home also features a (boat-sized) garage plus a downstairs den with additional outside entry, perfect for a hobby room, guest space, or home office. Located in the charming lake town of Bull Shoals near boating, fishing, and everyday conveniences. Capitalize on this move-in-ready condo in a 45+ community (with board-approved exceptions possible) and start living your best lake life today!

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $156,900 Active 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful Ozark hill views and easy lake living in this beautifully updated 2-bedroom condo just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake and the marina. This spacious condo lives like a one-story home with all necessities on the main level. Experience the fully remodeled kitchen with all new appliances, soft brand-new carpet, and beautifully remodeled bathrooms with thousands invested in upgrades. The home also features a (boat-sized) garage plus a downstairs den with additional outside entry, perfect for a hobby room, guest space, or home office. Located in the charming lake town of Bull Shoals near boating, fishing, and everyday conveniences. Capitalize on this move-in-ready condo in a 45+ community (with board-approved exceptions possible) and start living your best lake life today!

18. 2025-10-31
    status Active
19. 2025-10-24
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2025-09-06
    price $159,900
21. 2025-08-01
    price $168,000
22. 2025-07-08
    price $170,000
23. 2025-06-13
    listed $180,000 Active
24. 2017-08-04
    soldstatus $43,000
25. 2013-03-25
    soldstatus $39,000
26. 2008-09-04
    soldstatus $59,000
27. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $59,000
28. 1992-12-14
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $487 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 96.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$487
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$940
• − Management: −$940
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$4,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $-380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flippin School District
• NCES district ID: 0506150
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,855
• Composite: 26.54/100
• National rank: #7194
• State rank: #143 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bull Shoals

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #10104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bull Shoals, AR
• City population: 1,671
• Population (ZIP): 1,671

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,979 people
• By 2030: 14,153 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 12,546 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 11,386 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 9,663 · -35.5%
• By 2100: 8,248 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.1% · R 79.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.66%
• Current HPI: 168.1902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+367.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $149,500 MHMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $156,900 MHMLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — MHMLS
• 2025-10-24 Contingent — MHMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $159,900 MHMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $168,000 MHMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $170,000 MHMLS
• 2025-06-13 Listed $180,000 MHMLS
• 2017-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $487 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.