7209 Edmund Pendleton Dr

Lake Caroline, VA 22546

$388,500D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,037
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$67
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-379/mo
• Annual: $-4,550/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $108,780

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $388k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#476 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.