7209 Edmund Pendleton Dr · Lake Caroline, VA 22546

$388,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2014 5,067 sqft lot $233/sqft · 10% below area Est $433k · 10% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great opportunity to enjoy modern living in one of Caroline County’s fast-growing areas. Beautiful newer single-family home for sale in the Ashland community of Caroline County, VA, where exciting growth is happening all around. This spacious 3-level home features 4 bedrooms, comfortable living areas, and a convenient location near shopping, dining, new development, and major commuter routes.

Key facts

• 5,067 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $388k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#476 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,630 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.18%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,076
• List price: $388,500
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7235 Parchment Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+4%)	4mo	$399,999	$230	83
7274 Founders Hill Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+8%)	5mo	$539,999	$302	73
7128 Iron Gall Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-6%)	4mo	$415,900	$267	72
18301 Signature Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-6%)	13mo	$425,000	$273	68
18199 Cornerstone Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+3%)	10mo	$445,000	$259	67
18455 Colony Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+10%)	12mo	$429,900	$236	62
18456 Governor Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+8%)	11mo	$519,999	$291	61
18441 Governor Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+8%)	13mo	$474,999	$265	60
7213 Settlers Ridge Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+9%)	14mo	$415,000	$228	60
18468 Governor Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+8%)	15mo	$509,999	$285	58
7082 Braxton Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (+8%)	10mo	$500,999	$280	54
7082 Braxton Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (+8%)	10mo	$500,999	$280	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-87,228
• Equity at exit: $57,927

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-107,567
• Equity at exit: $33,590

Cash invested: $108,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,037
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,778/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,056

Max offer price $321,524

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,125
• Closing costs: $11,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18393 Signature Way Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,407	$1.76	24d	1	0.03mi
7236 Potomac Ter Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,500	$1.49	20d	1	0.19mi
7120 Iron Gall Ln Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,495	$1.47	44d	1	0.28mi
18347 Centennial Cir Ruther Glen, VA	4.0	3.5	2250	$1,090	$0.48	44d	1	0.36mi
7092 Durrette Rd Ruther Glen, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1500	$2,260	$1.51	1d	1	0.83mi
7124 Azalea Dr Ruther Glen, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,900	$1.32	44d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $388,500 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $388,500 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-04-30
   listed $388,500 Active 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   A great opportunity to enjoy modern living in one of Caroline County’s fast-growing areas. Beautiful newer single-family home for sale in the Ashland community of Caroline County, VA, where exciting growth is happening all around. This spacious 3-level home features 4 bedrooms, comfortable living areas, and a convenient location near shopping, dining, new development, and major commuter routes.

4. 2026-04-07
   historical $388,500 403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   A great opportunity to enjoy modern living in one of Caroline County’s fast-growing areas. Beautiful newer single-family home for sale in the Ashland community of Caroline County, VA, where exciting growth is happening all around. This spacious 3-level home features 4 bedrooms, comfortable living areas, and a convenient location near shopping, dining, new development, and major commuter routes.

5. 2014-12-07
   historical
6. 2014-12-07
   historical
7. 2014-05-13
   price
8. 2014-04-01
   status Active
9. 2014-04-01
   historical Expired
10. 2013-12-31
    status Active
11. 2013-12-31
    historical
12. 2013-08-03
    listed Active
13. 2013-08-03
    listed $204,900
14. 2011-10-20
    soldstatus $500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,778 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,186 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,407/yr (+$117/mo · 79.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,762
• − Property taxes: −$1,778
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$11,302
• Taxable loss: −$11,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,789
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Caroline

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #20626

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-22.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $388,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $388,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-12-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-12-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-05-13 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2014-04-01 Relisted — MRIS
• 2014-04-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-12-31 Relisted — MRIS
• 2013-12-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-08-03 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-08-03 Listed $204,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,778 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.