4207 Chickahominy Ave

East Highland Park, VA 23222

$289,950D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$261
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-783/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $81,186

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-783/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#197 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities D-.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $220k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in East Highland Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.