2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,560 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Manufactured
· Active
· 147 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,632/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$776
Tax + insurance
−$246
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$553
Net cashflow
$1,057/mo
Annual
$12,686/yr
Cap rate
14.87%
Cash-on-cash
30.63%
DSCR
2.36
1% rule
1.78%
Cash to close
$41,412
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $148k).
It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,050 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Abraham Lincoln Elementary (585 students, 80% FRL); La Quinta Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 754 students, 83% FRL); Palm Desert High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 2,050 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 621 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $108k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.2% in Palm Desert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,632/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Driveway cracks
— Small cracks in concrete
Minor: Exterior paint
— Some discoloration on siding
CashFlowRE · CFR-K3NXH34PF1QJK1
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29