4388 Circlewood Dr

Rapid Valley, SD 57703

$69,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,329 sqft · Built 1990 · Other · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $1,070/mo
• Annual: $12,839/yr
• Cap rate: 24.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.60%
• DSCR: 3.92
• 1% rule: 2.72%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $51k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 4.0% in Rapid Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.