4388 Circlewood Dr · Rapid Valley, SD 57703

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,329 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2000 Champion 3 bed 2 bath mobile home in Rapid Valley is on a rented lot. Leave it where it is or move it to a park/parcel of your choice. It features a large kitchen, spacious dining area and living room, and a master suite with walk-in closet. This home has washer/dryer hook-ups in the utility area and multiple upgrades including new master bedroom carpet and a new front door. It has newer vinyl plank flooring, newer hot water heater, newer fridge. Vinyl siding and skirting was replaced 3 years ago. Buyers must be approved by park prior to purchase. Listing agent is related to seller.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Pop out windows
• New paint

Tags

• NEW UPDATES
• NEW DECKS
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW PAINT
• NEW SHUTTERS
• POP OUT WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 24.7% vs local median 4.0% in Rapid Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $51k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.60%
• DSCR: 3.92
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $65,345
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.34×
• Total profit: $182,874
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57703

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $550

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2021-04-12
   soldstatus $51,000 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   This 2000 Champion 3 bed 2 bath mobile home in Rapid Valley is on a rented lot. Leave it where it is or move it to a park/parcel of your choice. It features a large kitchen, spacious dining area and living room, and a master suite with walk-in closet. This home has washer/dryer hook-ups in the utility area and multiple upgrades including new master bedroom carpet and a new front door. It has newer vinyl plank flooring, newer hot water heater, newer fridge. Vinyl siding and skirting was replaced 3 years ago. Buyers must be approved by park prior to purchase. Listing agent is related to seller.

2. 2021-02-24
   listed $56,900 599-char remark

   Show marketing remark (599 chars)

   This 2000 Champion 3 bed 2 bath mobile home in Rapid Valley is on a rented lot. Leave it where it is or move it to a park/parcel of your choice. It features a large kitchen, spacious dining area and living room, and a master suite with walk-in closet. This home has washer/dryer hook-ups in the utility area and multiple upgrades including new master bedroom carpet and a new front door. It has newer vinyl plank flooring, newer hot water heater, newer fridge. Vinyl siding and skirting was replaced 3 years ago. Buyers must be approved by park prior to purchase. Listing agent is related to seller.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $916 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$454/yr (+$38/mo · 98.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $12,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,983
• After-tax cash flow: $9,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapid City Area School District 51-4
• NCES district ID: 4659820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,145
• Composite: 34.47/100
• National rank: #5189
• State rank: #50 of 59 in SD

Livability — Rapid Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13677

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rapid Valley, SD
• County: Pennington County · 99,403 people
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• Population (ZIP): 18,013
• Household income: $83,739
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 186.0

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,504 people
• By 2030: 133,370 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 147,505 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 160,507 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 197,585 · +57.4%
• By 2100: 241,736 · +92.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.4% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+29.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.50%
• Current HPI: 226.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.27%
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2021-04-12 Sold (MLS) $51,000 BHMLS
• 2021-02-24 Listed $56,900 BHMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.