3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,660 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,199/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,982
Tax + insurance
−$630
HOA
−$830
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$882
Net cashflow
$-125/mo
Annual
$-1,503/yr
Cap rate
5.90%
Cash-on-cash
-1.42%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$105,840
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $378k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $378k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $179k; list at $378k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,199/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: kitchen appliances
— Outdated and non-functional appliances.
Major: kitchen cabinets
— Outdated and worn-out cabinets.
Major: bathroom fixtures
— Outdated and worn-out fixtures.
Major: flooring
— Worn-out carpet in bedrooms.
Major: interior walls/paint
— Outdated and worn-out paint and decor.
Major: landscaping
— Lack of landscaping and curb appeal.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K3RY51E64K6X6S
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29