4116 Fogle Dr

Owensboro, KY 42301

$189,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,589/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $63/mo
• Annual: $754/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($754/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (16.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#148 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: F T Burns Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 479 students, 74% FRL); F T Burns Middle School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 710 students, 67% FRL); Apollo High School (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #92 of 254 statewide, top 36%, 1,440 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Owensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.