4116 Fogle Dr · Owensboro, KY 42301

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1978 6,540 sqft lot Est $216k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention First Time Home Buyers. .. .perfect house for starting out. .. .3 Bedrooms, Living Room and separate family room, spacious kitchen, 1 car garage, privacy fence. Conveniently located near schools, churches and shopping. See this house today!!!

Key facts

• 6,540 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 parking space; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Cable available; Natural gas available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story; Located in the Hilton Park subdivision
• Construction: Brick / brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,339 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling with ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($754/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Owensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#148 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: F T Burns Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 479 students, 74% FRL); F T Burns Middle School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 710 students, 67% FRL); Apollo High School (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #92 of 254 statewide, top 36%, 1,440 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 42% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,949 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,579
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4103 Mcintire Xing	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,326 (-1%)	1mo	$198,900	$150	82
3683 Legacy Run	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,346 (+0%)	0mo	$240,000	$178	78
3624 Legacy Run	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	2mo	$240,000	$178	71
2447 Thornton Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-9%)	1mo	$205,000	$169	61
2536 Lake Shore Pt	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-4%)	1mo	$173,900	$135	61
2328 Homestead Pointe	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-8%)	4mo	$215,000	$174	58
2432 Tamarack Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-13%)	3mo	$155,000	$134	56
2504 Elder Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-10%)	2mo	$184,000	$153	55
2530 Lake Shore Pointe	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+9%)	1mo	$255,000	$175	53
2508 Strickland Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-13%)	7mo	$174,900	$151	53
4418 Mcintire Xing	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,518 (+13%)	6mo	$237,750	$157	52
3842 Carpenter Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,149 (-14%)	2mo	$185,000	$161	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,817
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,396
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42301

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,414/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $117	+0% $63	+5% $9	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $0	+0% $63	+5% $126	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $111	base $63	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2035 Ottawa Dr Owensboro, KY	4.0	1.5	1407	$1,650	$1.17	45d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $189,900 Active
3. 2021-06-25
   soldstatus $140,000
4. 2021-06-25
   soldstatus $140,000
5. 2021-04-14
   listed $139,900
6. 2016-03-11
   soldstatus $84,000 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Attention First Time Home Buyers. .. .perfect house for starting out. .. .3 Bedrooms, Living Room and separate family room, spacious kitchen, 1 car garage, privacy fence. Conveniently located near schools, churches and shopping. See this house today!!!

7. 2016-03-01
   soldstatus $84,000
8. 2015-10-28
   listed $89,900 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Attention First Time Home Buyers. .. .perfect house for starting out. .. .3 Bedrooms, Living Room and separate family room, spacious kitchen, 1 car garage, privacy fence. Conveniently located near schools, churches and shopping. See this house today!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,633 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 15.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,414
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$601
• After-tax cash flow: $1,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Daviess County
• NCES district ID: 2101470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,303
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5778
• State rank: #43 of 165 in KY

Livability — Owensboro

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #7153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Owensboro, KY
• County: Daviess County · 87,564 people
• City population: 87,564
• Metro: Owensboro, KY
• Population (ZIP): 45,445
• Household income: $66,885
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,810 people
• By 2030: 105,722 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 108,731 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 110,295 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 113,056 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 106,257 · +2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Daviess

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.3% · R 65.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+27.9 2016: R+32.2 2012: R+21.1 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.96%
• Current HPI: 238.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Owensboro, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+111.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — GORAMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $189,900 GORAMLS
• 2021-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) $140,000 GORAMLS
• 2021-04-14 Listed $139,900 GORAMLS
• 2016-03-11 Sold (MLS) $84,000 GORAMLS
• 2016-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-28 Listed $89,900 GORAMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,414 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.