1089 Goose Dam Rd

Henry Fork, VA 24151

$219,777D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,915 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-171/mo
• Annual: $-2,048/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $61,538

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (34.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $144k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#346 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sontag Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 241 students, 76% FRL); Benjamin Franklin Middle (math 64% / reading 72%, grade A-, #94 of 342 statewide, top 28%, 1,397 students, 74% FRL); Franklin County High (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,904 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 45% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.