1089 Goose Dam Rd · Henry Fork, VA 24151

$219,777

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,915 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1975 1.50 ac lot $115/sqft · 11% below area Est $260k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on 1.5 acres, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, functionality, and room to make it your own. The lower level features a spacious primary bedroom along with a cozy family room centered around a fireplace--perfect for relaxing evenings. A walk-out basement adds convenience and easy access to the outdoors. Outside, you'll find a roomy two-door garage with a concrete floor and electric, ideal for projects, storage, or any shade tree mechanic looking for the perfect workspace. With a generous lot and practical features throughout, this property offers the flexibility of country living with plenty of potential. Property sells ''AS IS''.

Key facts

• Two-door garage
• Electric
• Walk-out basement

Tags

• 1.5 ACRES
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• TWO-DOOR GARAGE
• CONCRETE FLOOR
• ELECTRIC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.5-acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1975
• Exterior features: Rear porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Wood doors; Insulated windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#346 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Franklin County Public School District (town): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #24 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sontag Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 241 students, 76% FRL); Benjamin Franklin Middle (math 64% / reading 72%, grade A-, #94 of 342 statewide, top 28%, 1,397 students, 74% FRL); Franklin County High (math 79% / reading 82%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,904 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 45% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $143,797 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.33%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,148
• List price: $219,777
• Delta: -15.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1089 Goose Dam Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+5%)	1mo	$219,777	$109	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-46,593
• Equity at exit: $32,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-55,011
• Equity at exit: $19,002

Cash invested: $61,538 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24151

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $189,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-108	+0% $-171	+5% $-233	+10% $-295
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-227	+0% $-171	+5% $-114	+10% $-57
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-115	base $-171	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,944
• Closing costs: $6,593
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 650-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $219,777 Active 650-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,051/yr (+$88/mo · 140.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,311
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$1,099
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$6,394
• Taxable loss: −$6,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101440
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,093
• Composite: 59.5/100
• National rank: #921
• State rank: #24 of 131 in VA

Livability — Henry Fork

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #13818

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin County · 18,154 people
• City population: 18,256
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 18,154
• Household income: $65,223
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 462.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,242 people
• By 2030: 55,742 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 53,669 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 50,291 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 42,395 · -24.6%
• By 2100: 32,981 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 14% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.9% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: -22.8pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+42.2 2012: R+28.6 2008: R+22.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.83%
• Current HPI: 204.9607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $219,777 MLSRV
• 2026-05-04 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-24 Listed $219,777 MLSRV

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.