19329 Ray Armstrong Rd

Andalusia, AL 36421

$190,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-231/mo
• Annual: $-2,770/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (41.6% below list).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Level School (math 27% / reading 42%, 488 students, 73% FRL); Straughn Middle School (math 35% / reading 62%, grade C-, #28 of 257 statewide, top 11%, 318 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?