19329 Ray Armstrong Rd · Andalusia, AL 36421

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1971 4.30 ac lot $136/sqft · 20% below area Est $238k · 20% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home featuring a brick and vinyl exterior, open floor plan, and cozy country living on 3.72 fully fenced, private acres. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2 car carport, a quaint sleeping porch, front porch, and side patio- perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Laundry is located inside. Move-in ready and full of potential.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attached carport
• Front porch

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL EXTERIOR
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED PRIVATE ACRES
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• SLEEPING PORCH
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (41.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Covington County (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #32 of 129 in AL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Level School (math 27% / reading 42%, 488 students, 73% FRL); Straughn Middle School (math 35% / reading 62%, grade C-, #28 of 257 statewide, top 11%, 318 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Covington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Covington County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,982 (41.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,926
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -20.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $25,627
• Equity at exit: $104,105

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $91,652
• Equity at exit: $176,790

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36421

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $385/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $149,215

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-177	+0% $-231	+5% $-502	+10% $-568
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-275	+0% $-231	+5% $-187	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-183	base $-231	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 253 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 252 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $190,000 Active 243 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active 237 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 236 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 234 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 233 DOM
19. 2026-04-28
    price $190,000 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home featuring a brick and vinyl exterior, open floor plan, and cozy country living on 3.72 fully fenced, private acres. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2 car carport, a quaint sleeping porch, front porch, and side patio- perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Laundry is located inside. Move-in ready and full of potential.

20. 2026-02-03
    status Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home featuring a brick and vinyl exterior, open floor plan, and cozy country living on 3.72 fully fenced, private acres. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2 car carport, a quaint sleeping porch, front porch, and side patio- perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Laundry is located inside. Move-in ready and full of potential.

21. 2026-01-20
    historical Active Under Contract 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home featuring a brick and vinyl exterior, open floor plan, and cozy country living on 3.72 fully fenced, private acres. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2 car carport, a quaint sleeping porch, front porch, and side patio- perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Laundry is located inside. Move-in ready and full of potential.

22. 2026-01-05
    price $225,000 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home featuring a brick and vinyl exterior, open floor plan, and cozy country living on 3.72 fully fenced, private acres. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2 car carport, a quaint sleeping porch, front porch, and side patio- perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Laundry is located inside. Move-in ready and full of potential.

23. 2025-10-09
    listed $245,000 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home featuring a brick and vinyl exterior, open floor plan, and cozy country living on 3.72 fully fenced, private acres. Enjoy the convenience of an attached 2 car carport, a quaint sleeping porch, front porch, and side patio- perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Laundry is located inside. Move-in ready and full of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $385 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$394/yr (+$33/mo · 102.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$385
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$6,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington County
• NCES district ID: 0100930
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,213
• Composite: 32.13/100
• National rank: #5797
• State rank: #32 of 129 in AL

Livability — Andalusia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #13465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,861
• Population (ZIP): 9,861

Population outlook (Covington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,007 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 34,983 · -5.5%
• By 2050: 33,437 · -9.6%
• By 2075: 29,753 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 25,109 · -32.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 11% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Covington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.4) · D 13.6% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.3pp · 2024: -72.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.4 2020: R+68.1 2016: R+68.5 2012: R+58.3 2008: R+58.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.69%
• Current HPI: 184.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $190,000 CAOR
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — CAOR
• 2026-01-20 Contingent — CAOR
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $225,000 CAOR
• 2025-10-09 Listed $245,000 CAOR

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $385 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.