48 Fulton St

New Haven, CT 06513

$385,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Under Contract · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$682
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$988
• Net cashflow: $1,017/mo
• Annual: $12,205/yr
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.32%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4.0-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $509/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $385k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $379k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ross/Woodward School (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #481 of 553 statewide, top 87%, 603 students, 77% FRL); Wilbur Cross High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 194 statewide, top 78%, 1,633 students, 76% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $385k implies a 413% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $108k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,707/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 2664% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.