29149 E San Jose Ave

Wellton, AZ 85356

$145,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,501/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,754/yr
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Wellton Elementary District (4504) (rural): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #367 of 501 in AZ (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $145k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Wellton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.