29149 E San Jose Ave · Wellton, AZ 85356

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1988 Est $200k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Older beautiful home.

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1988
• Construction: Single-family property built in 1988
• Exterior features: Located in the Wellton Annex subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Wellton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Wellton Elementary District (4504) (rural): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #367 of 501 in AZ (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $145k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,448
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29409 E San Jose Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$174	84
29249 San Jose Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,067 (-7%)	0mo	$230,000	$216	78
29358 E San Jose Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-4%)	13mo	$189,000	$170	71
28549 Bakersfield Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+3%)	22mo	$215,000	$181	52
28602 E San Francisco	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,016 (-12%)	4mo	$120,000	$118	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $20,542
• Equity at exit: $47,334

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $68,064
• Equity at exit: $61,261

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85356

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $625/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $354	+0% $313	+5% $272	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $254	+0% $313	+5% $372	+10% $431
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $350	base $313	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $145,000 Active
18. 1999-09-22
    soldstatus $58,000
19. 1991-12-18
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $625 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 53.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$625
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$345
• After-tax cash flow: $3,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellton Elementary District (4504)
• NCES district ID: 0409090
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,258
• Composite: 20.3/100
• National rank: #13817
• State rank: #367 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Wellton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8902

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellton, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,789

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: German 3% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.71%
• Current HPI: 235.7713
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+222.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 1999-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $625 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.