32789 Starlight St

Wildomar, CA 92595

$699,999F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,124 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,957/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$1,063
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$831
• Net cashflow: $-1,608/mo
• Annual: $-19,292/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.44%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $416k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (43.5% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $396k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 17422% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.