385 Katnack Rd

Nocatee, FL 32095

$319,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1982 · MultiFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-388/mo
• Annual: $-4,659/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $89,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (36.7% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $320k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.