385 Katnack Rd · Nocatee, FL 32095

$319,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1982 0.83 ac lot $346/sqft · 20% above area Est $381k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Private and high-and-dry 0.82-acre St. Augustine property with NO HOA offering rare flexibility and space. The renovated 3BR/2BA main home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh finishes, modern lighting, and an updated kitchen with quartz countertops, new cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a NEW 2025 A/C. Adjacent to the main home is a charming, fully remodeled mother-in-law suite with its own kitchen, washer/dryer hookups, and spacious bathroom, providing additional living space or rental use. Outdoor features include mature trees, usable land, a 24x35 metal workshop with commercial car lift, and full RV hookups with water, sewer, and electric. Peaceful setting with convenient access to shopping, dining, historic downtown St. Augustine, beaches, and nearby boat ramp access. Short- and long-term rentals permitted.

Key facts

• Renovated main home
• Updated kitchen
• Full rv hookups

Tags

• 0.82-ACRE PROPERTY
• RENOVATED MAIN HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• 24X35 METAL WORKSHOP
• FULL RV HOOKUPS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $320k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,342 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,038
• List price: $319,500
• Delta: -16.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-79,082
• Equity at exit: $47,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-111,038
• Equity at exit: $27,625

Cash invested: $89,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,138/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,515

Max offer price $250,910

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,875
• Closing costs: $9,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Palmetto Ridge Rd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,750	$1.58	23d	1	0.87mi
161 Palmetto Ridge Rd St Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,700	$1.53	23d	1	0.87mi
163 Palmetto Ridge Rd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1109	$1,700	$1.53	23d	1	0.88mi
171 Palmetto Ridge Rd Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1108	$1,700	$1.53	23d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,500 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $319,500 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,500 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,500 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,500 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,500 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,500 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $329,500 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,500 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,500 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,500 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,500 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,500 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,500 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    price $329,500 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Private and high-and-dry 0.82-acre St. Augustine property with NO HOA offering rare flexibility and space. The renovated 3BR/2BA main home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh finishes, modern lighting, and an updated kitchen with quartz countertops, new cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a NEW 2025 A/C. Adjacent to the main home is a charming, fully remodeled mother-in-law suite with its own kitchen, washer/dryer hookups, and spacious bathroom, providing additional living space or rental use. Outdoor features include mature trees, usable land, a 24x35 metal workshop with commercial car lift, and full RV hookups with water, sewer, and electric. Peaceful setting with convenient access to shopping, dining, historic downtown St. Augustine, beaches, and nearby boat ramp access. Short- and long-term rentals permitted.

16. 2026-03-06
    price $339,500 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Private and high-and-dry 0.82-acre St. Augustine property with NO HOA offering rare flexibility and space. The renovated 3BR/2BA main home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh finishes, modern lighting, and an updated kitchen with quartz countertops, new cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a NEW 2025 A/C. Adjacent to the main home is a charming, fully remodeled mother-in-law suite with its own kitchen, washer/dryer hookups, and spacious bathroom, providing additional living space or rental use. Outdoor features include mature trees, usable land, a 24x35 metal workshop with commercial car lift, and full RV hookups with water, sewer, and electric. Peaceful setting with convenient access to shopping, dining, historic downtown St. Augustine, beaches, and nearby boat ramp access. Short- and long-term rentals permitted.

17. 2026-02-07
    price $364,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Private and high-and-dry 0.82-acre St. Augustine property with NO HOA offering rare flexibility and space. The renovated 3BR/2BA main home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh finishes, modern lighting, and an updated kitchen with quartz countertops, new cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a NEW 2025 A/C. Adjacent to the main home is a charming, fully remodeled mother-in-law suite with its own kitchen, washer/dryer hookups, and spacious bathroom, providing additional living space or rental use. Outdoor features include mature trees, usable land, a 24x35 metal workshop with commercial car lift, and full RV hookups with water, sewer, and electric. Peaceful setting with convenient access to shopping, dining, historic downtown St. Augustine, beaches, and nearby boat ramp access. Short- and long-term rentals permitted.

18. 2025-12-19
    listed $384,000 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Private and high-and-dry 0.82-acre St. Augustine property with NO HOA offering rare flexibility and space. The renovated 3BR/2BA main home features an open floor plan, luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh finishes, modern lighting, and an updated kitchen with quartz countertops, new cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a NEW 2025 A/C. Adjacent to the main home is a charming, fully remodeled mother-in-law suite with its own kitchen, washer/dryer hookups, and spacious bathroom, providing additional living space or rental use. Outdoor features include mature trees, usable land, a 24x35 metal workshop with commercial car lift, and full RV hookups with water, sewer, and electric. Peaceful setting with convenient access to shopping, dining, historic downtown St. Augustine, beaches, and nearby boat ramp access. Short- and long-term rentals permitted.

19. 2025-10-17
    soldstatus $121,700
20. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,138 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,897
• − Property taxes: −$2,138
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − Depreciation: −$9,295
• Taxable loss: −$10,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3195.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $329,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $339,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $364,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-12-19 Listed $384,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2025-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $121,700 Public Records
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,138 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.