38 Townsend St

New Haven, CT 06511

$250,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 832 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $540/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($540/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $250k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.