38 Townsend St · New Haven, CT 06511

$250,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1900 2,178 sqft lot $300/sqft · at area comps Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a starter home? HERE IT IS... Looking to downsize? HERE IT IS... Motivated Seller. Will entertain all serious offers. Inquire with listing agent for more details.

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 233 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($540/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $250k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,076 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,653
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -1.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Woodland St	0.44mi	2/1.0	721 (-13%)	7mo	$285,000	$395	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,520
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,420
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,677/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,074

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
141 County St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	695	$1,700	$2.45	2d	1	0.15mi
141 County St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	695	$1,700	$2.45	43d	1	0.15mi
201 Munson St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0–2.5	941	$3,770	$4.00	2d	120	0.26mi
355 Sherman Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	780	$1,950	$2.50	11d	1	0.34mi
90 Bristol St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	752	$2,195	$2.92	3d	1	0.39mi
90 Bristol St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	764	$1,995	$2.61	2d	1	0.39mi
38 Tilton St Unit 423-L New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,895	$1.77	43d	1	0.39mi
37 Woodland St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	912	$2,400	$2.63	43d	1	0.41mi
37 Woodland St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	996	$2,400	$2.41	3d	1	0.41mi
30 Tilton St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	800	$1,950	$2.44	43d	1	0.41mi
49 Carmel St Apt 3 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	14d	1	0.41mi
61 Lake Pl Apt 102 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	965	$2,495	$2.59	14d	1	0.42mi
44 Carmel St Hamden, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	43d	1	0.43mi
301 Winchester Ave New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$3,718	$4.18	2d	96	0.43mi
84 Munson St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	23d	1	0.44mi
28 Compton St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	43d	1	0.44mi
22 Carmel St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	720	$1,750	$2.43	11d	1	0.46mi
310 W Division St Unit 1R New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	23d	1	0.46mi
621 Elm St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	14d	1	0.49mi
273 Dwight St Unit 5 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	762	$2,000	$2.62	3d	1	0.50mi
260 Dwight St New Haven, CT	1.0–3.0	1.0	655	$2,325	$3.55	19d	1	0.50mi
275 Winchester Ave New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$3,110	$3.98	3d	19	0.51mi
133 Howe St New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	900	$1,895	$2.11	23d	1	0.54mi
245 Dwight St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	550	$1,900	$3.45	43d	1	0.55mi
57 Thompson St Unit 1R New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	43d	1	0.56mi
107 Howe St Unit A New Haven, CT	3.0	2.5	1025	$3,600	$3.51	14d	1	0.60mi
104 Howe St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0–2.0	732	$3,295	$4.50	11d	7	0.61mi
235 Starr St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,175	$1.98	14d	1	0.61mi
98 Howe St Unit 5 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	23d	1	0.62mi
192 Dwight St Unit 192-1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	43d	1	0.63mi
94 Howe St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	14d	1	0.63mi
382 Winthrop Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	11d	1	0.64mi
220 Sherman Ave Unit 1 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	3d	1	0.64mi
145 Starr St New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	678	$1,600	$2.36	43d	1	0.64mi
145 Starr St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	2.0	1.0	678	$1,600	$2.36	23d	1	0.65mi
440 Prospect St #2 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	625	$1,850	$2.96	43d	1	0.65mi
270 Edgewood Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	975	$2,000	$2.05	43d	1	0.65mi
365 Orchard St New Haven, CT	2.0–4.0	1.0	1175	$1,695	$1.44	14d	4	0.66mi
1375 Chapel St Unit 1375-6 New Haven, CT	1.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	43d	1	0.70mi
465 Whalley Ave New Haven, CT	2.0	1.5	925	$1,950	$2.11	43d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 224 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 215 DOM
16. 2025-11-11
    price $250,000 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Looking for a starter home? HERE IT IS... Looking to downsize? HERE IT IS... Motivated Seller. Will entertain all serious offers. Inquire with listing agent for more details.

17. 2025-10-28
    listed $285,000 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Looking for a starter home? HERE IT IS... Looking to downsize? HERE IT IS... Motivated Seller. Will entertain all serious offers. Inquire with listing agent for more details.

18. 2012-03-12
    soldstatus $75,000
19. 2007-12-28
    soldstatus $38,000 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Contract, addendum & vof required with all offers. Property to be sold as is, where is. Needs total rehab. Copper stripped. Bring flashlight. Enter at own risk.

20. 2007-10-05
    listed $39,900 164-char remark

    Show marketing remark (164 chars)

    Contract, addendum & vof required with all offers. Property to be sold as is, where is. Needs total rehab. Copper stripped. Bring flashlight. Enter at own risk.

21. 2004-10-05
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 2003-12-01
    listed $60,000
24. 2003-10-31
    historical
25. 2002-10-28
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,677 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,014 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,336/yr (+$111/mo · 49.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,677
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$894
• After-tax cash flow: $1,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+355.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $285,000 Smart MLS
• 2012-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-28 Sold (MLS) $38,000 Smart MLS
• 2007-10-05 Listed $39,900 Smart MLS
• 2004-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-29 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-12-01 Listed $60,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-10-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2002-10-28 Listed $54,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,677 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.